Vicente Andres Zaragoza has generated an average
return four times the return of his peer managers
helped by original software designed by his
company. His fund, the $100 Million Pentium
Quantitative Fund, one of four in his group,
uses this software to analyze date from almost
400 other portfolios to determine how effectively
other managers hedge their portfolios and produce
positive returns in both rising and declining
markets. As Zaragoza so descriptively says,
“The pattern of a manager’s historical
performance tells us quickly if he is hedging
or running a virtual gambling casino.”
Managing funds that total around $400 Million,
Zaragoza seeks returns that are consistent
and regular, not necessarily high. This philosophy
mirrors an unusual probability and statistical
theorem called “negative kurtosis”,
which if graphed would display a smooth curve
without any sharp spikes. With little deviation
from the mean, it displays smaller profits
than many other hedge funds but a much higher
consistency of positive returns than those
that concentrate on taking gains from just
a few investments.
For instance, Pentium Quantitative recently
had returns of 16.2% which compares very favorably
with of 7.5% generated by the average hedge
fund during the same period. In the next time
frame, Zaragoza’s fund earned 26.2%
while the Hedge Fund Research Institute’s
composite index increased 6.5%. As you can
see, although Zaragoza’s strategy is
to hedge to the degree that short term profits
are often smaller than most of his peers,
his dedication to consistency can produce
excellent returns over the longer term. Zaragoza
believes that his regular and consistent returns
prove that he is an effective manager who
hedges investments and avoids taking unfounded
risks.
Born in Spain, Zaragoza spent his younger
life in the Philippines, studying engineering
at LaSalle University in Manila. His father,
an architect, suggested he study business.
While not originally enthused, Zaragoza enrolled
at the Asian Institute of Management where
he learned the basics of investing. He continued
his studies at the International Institute
for Management Development (Lausanne, Switzerland),
where his investment skills were further polished
and from which he graduated in 1984 with an
M.B.A.
Since 2003 Zaragoza has been using the proprietary
software developed over a 2-year period by
his creative team. The software which examines
manager performance and detects trends shown
by groups of hedge funds, provides a score
sheet, rating managers and their correlation,
positive or negative, with the S&P 500
index. Zaragoza states that this data allows
him to “manage managers”, using
those that have positive results to mimic
their philosophy to enjoy market trends and
provide hedges for themselves.
Recent data shows that there are more than
8,000 hedge funds in the market controlling
over $1.3 Trillion assets. Zaragoza’s
super software only examines a statistic sample
(around 5%) of these funds, not the entire
market. Using a strategic sample to generate
good results depends on the quality of the
sample and it appears his software is effective
to date.
His strategy has so far worked well. If the
S&P 500 index moves up significantly (say
over 10%), he will have Pentium Quantitative
invest significant assets (say, 40%) in those
hedge funds that show a high correlation to
the index, while protecting the fund by investing
currency in funds that have assets in the
foreign exchange markets. If the index quickly
drops, Pentium can still make positive returns
through the foreign exchange market hedge.
But what happens to returns over the longer
term? In 2003, Pentium Quantitative jumped
by 61.4% versus the Hedge Fund Research Institute’s
11.6%. Also, in 2004, Pentium increased by
almost 25% while the HFRI’s composite
index increased 6.9%. Investors are obviously
happy with these historical results.
Hedge fund investors regularly pay around
a 2.0% fee to manage their money which is
in addition to paying around 20% of the profit
generated by the fund and its management.
While most investors would prefer not to have
these fees, they expect higher returns and
therefore expect to pay for the privilege.
That has not stopped the heavy criticism that
hedge funds cost clients double fees which
are high in relation to the average rate of
return. Since most hedge fund investors are
veterans of the market, they are well aware
that these dual fees are reducing their returns
and are beginning to effect and/or change
the reason for making these investments at
all. Reports are increasing that some of this
group are moving money from these “funds
of hedge funds” into more limited-scope
(called single-strategy) funds. With average
returns in the 7.00% range for funds of hedge
funds, investors often believe that pure limited
strategy hedge funds will provide better returns
and risk management than they will realize
in relation to the above fee levels.
Zaragoza’s Pentium Quantitative, based
in Geneva, charges 1.5% annual management
fees and retains 15% of returns generated,
somewhat less than common practice. Admitting
that it costs more than normal investments
as a whole, Zaragoza still maintains, “It
just feels better knowing that your life or
your money is well tended to. Don’t
think of the costs; think of the results.”
Others agree, many stating that, though possibly
costly, this strategy remains the most sensible
way to invest.
As with the majority of hedge funds, Zaragoza’s
Pentium does not reveal the identities of
the funds in which it invests or the managers
in their favor, but he will admit that in
the past year, Pentium’s funds were
placed with around 25 hedge funds and more
are scheduled to be added. A full 50% of his
portfolio was placed with funds that bet on
or against equities, while the remainder was
invested with funds that profit from pure
business events, such as restructurings, reorganizations,
mergers, consolidations, and/or acquisitions.
While not the only fund in his group (others
are involved in commodities, energy, and other
diversified investments), Zaragoza states
that Pentium Quantitative is the most conservative
of the collection. As he humorously –
but honestly – admits to anyone who
asks, “I designed this fund for my mother
and my sister, who aren’t willing to
accept even a 1% loss.” His investment
group is most happy he left his engineering
studies to become a sophisticated hedge fund
designer and manager.